Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3720-1.3970
Euro 1.5900-1.6150
Sterling 1.8320-1.8570
WTI Oil (opening level) $59.06
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3850 ( 0.7220 )
Investors seem to be waiting on the sidelines ahead of key central bank event risks – the BoC policy update and the highly-anticipated FOMC rate decision on Wednesday.
Today's US macro data – the ADP Weekly Employment Change and JOLTS Job Openings might provide some impetus.
The divergent BoC-Fed expectations warrant some caution for the USD/CAD bulls. As well, crude oil prices consolidating undermines CAD strength in the short term.
Headlines
· Trump stated that he informed Chinese President Xi the US will permit NVIDIA (NVDA) to ship its H200 products to approved customers in China and other countries. He added that the same policy will apply to AMD (AMD), Intel (INTC), and other leading US companies.
· Trump announced a USD 12 billion aid package for farmers, stating his intention to support the agricultural sector. He criticised the rising costs of farming equipment and indicated plans to remove regulations to help lower these prices.
· Australia’s Reserve Bank left the Cash Rate Target unchanged at 3.60% as expected, and Governor Michelle Bullock ruled out further interest rate cuts for the foreseeable future, citing inflation concerns. Australia’s 2-year yields rose another ten basis points, rising toward 4.07%, the highest in 2025 and indicating eventual rate hikes ahead in 2026.
· UK retail sales rose 1.2% year-on-year in November 2025, the slowest in six months, as consumers awaited Finance Minister Reeves' budget and Black Friday sales disappointed. Food sales increased by 3.0%, while non-food sales rose by 0.1%, rebounding from a 7.9% decline a year earlier.
Key Points
· Equities: Equities slipped across US, Europe and Asia as traders awaited Fed cuts and digested deal drama and China policy signals
· Volatility: VIX mixed, cautious downside hedging, selective call demand
· Digital Assets: BTC consolidates, ETH stable, ETF flows firm, options favour structured upside
· Fixed Income: German 10-year yield leaps to new highs since March, US 10-year treasury yield eyes top of range.
· Currencies: JPY weakness remains a theme as bonds under pressure everywhere. USD quiet ahead of FOMC.
· Commodities: Crude holds near support with supply in focus; high-flying metals see profit-taking ahead of FOMC