Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3970-1.4220
Euro 1.6130-1.6380
Sterling 1.8340-1.8590
WTI Oil (opening level) $60.13
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.4096 ( 0.7094 )
Investors are awaiting the release of the Canadian October Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and the speech from Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem later today. The BoC cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% last week, while stressing that it remained ready to adjust policy further should Canada’s economic outlook deteriorate.
In the United States (US), private-sector employment data exceeded expectations. The ADP report showed a gain of 42,000 jobs in October, compared with a 29,000 decrease in the previous month and well above forecasts of 25,000. The figures confirm the resilience of the labor market, although expectations for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in December have eased somewhat.
Headlines
· The US Supreme Court appeared skeptical of Donald Trump’s tariffs, with some justices suggesting he had overstepped his authority. Even if they are struck down, the president has other legal avenues to pursue, leaving companies and countries in limbo. A ruling against the current measures might trigger refunds of past duties, but new tariffs could quickly follow, keeping the outlook unsettled.
· US private businesses added 42K jobs, rebounding from September's 29K job cuts and surpassing the 25K forecast. The service sector gained 33K jobs, mostly in trade/transportation/utilities (47K), education/health services (26K), and financial activities (11K), while losses continued in professional/business services (-15K), information (-17K), and leisure/hospitality (-6K). The goods sector added 9K jobs, though manufacturing shed 3K jobs. Annual pay growth was flat at 4.5% for job-stayers and 6.7% for job-changers, indicating balanced supply and demand.
· The ISM Services PMI rose to 52.4 in October 2025 from 50 in September, beating forecasts. This marks the strongest sector growth since February, with business activity (54.3) and new orders (56.2) improving. Employment contraction (48.2) signals economic uncertainty, while the federal shutdown impacts business activity. The order backlog fell (40.8), as companies manage orders well. Price pressures increased (70) due to tariffs.
· US household debt reached a record $18.59 trillion in Q3 2025, up $197 billion. Mortgages increased by $137 billion, credit card debt by $24 billion, HELOC by $11 billion, and student loans by $15 billion, while auto loans stayed at $1.66 trillion. Mortgage originations hit $512 billion. Donghoon Lee from the New York Fed noted moderate debt growth and stable delinquencies, reflecting housing market resilience.
· Nvidia’s Jensen Huang says China “Will win” AI race with the US due to lower energy costs and looser regulations, saying the west, including the US and UK, is being held back by “cynicism” (FT)
· Bloomberg reports that a major trade union in Japan representing 1.9 million workers will push for a 6% rise in wages ahead of next year’s round of wage negotiations.
Key Points
· Equities: U.S. rose on firmer services, Europe edged higher on autos and wind, Asia firm with Japan and Korea up
· Volatility: VIX softens, light put skew, data and BoE in focus
· Digital Assets: BTC/ETH steady, IBIT & ETHA outflows, Solana ETF inflows, selective rebound in crypto equities
· Fixed Income: US Treasury yields rose sharply, with 10-year benchmark challenging 1-month highs.
· Currencies: US dollar weakens as risk sentiment sees broad recovery, GBP steady ahead of Bank of England rate decision
· Commodities: Gold holds near USD 4,000, oil stays under supply pressure, and the CBOT wheat rally extends