Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3970-1.4220
Euro 1.6180-1.6430
Sterling 1.8380-1.8630
WTI Oil (opening level) $59.86
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.4103 ( 0.7090 )
The US Dollar has lost some momentum, and the USD/CAD pulled back to the 1.1410 area from session highs at 1.4125. The pair's rally from last week's low below 1.3900 was capped at 1.4140 earlier in the week, and is looking for direction ahead of Canada’s employment data.
Headlines
· US job cuts reached 153,074 in October, the month's highest since 2003, up from 54,064 in September. Major layoffs hit warehousing, tech, food, and government sectors due to AI adoption and rising costs. Year-to-date layoffs totalled 1,099,500, a 44% rise from 2024, mostly in government and tech sectors with 307,638 and 141,159 cuts.
· The Bank of England's MPC voted 5–4 to keep the Bank Rate at 4% on 5 November, as expected. Four members favored a 25 bps cut. CPI inflation has peaked, and disinflation is aided by restrictive policy and softer pay growth. The subdued economy and labor slack reinforce disinflation. Risks to the 2% inflation target are more balanced, with future rate changes depending on data. Gradual rate reductions may occur if disinflation persists.
· Euro Area retail sales fell by 0.10% month-on-month. Historically, retail sales have averaged a monthly change of 0.10% from 1995 to 2025, peaking at 19.30% in May 2020 and hitting a low of -11.30% in April 2020.
· Norges Bank kept its policy rate at 4%, after a prior 25 basis-point cut, aligning with expectations. No changes in the economic outlook have occurred since September. Future rate cuts are possible if projections hold. Despite cooling the economy, inflation remains above target at 3%, with rising unemployment. A restrictive stance remains necessary to control inflation.
· Switzerland's non-seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 2.9% from 2.8%, the highest since March, with unemployed individuals increasing by 2,000 to 135,200. Youth unemployment fell to 3.1% from 3.2%, with 13,500 unemployed. Job vacancies decreased by 2,400 to 35,000. The seasonally adjusted jobless rate remained at 3.0%
Key Points
· Equities: Tech-led U.S. selloff, Europe slid on earnings drags, Asia firmer on China tech with Japan and Korea up
· Volatility: Market on edge ahead of payrolls, sentiment defensive but upside skew hints at rebound hopes
· Digital Assets: Crypto steadies after rough week; ETF flows mixed as investors stay cautious but engaged
· Currencies: USD rebounds on weak risk sentiment, JPY rally attempt fades overnight
· Commodities: Natural gas and diesel on top in a mixed week for commodities
· Fixed Income: US Treasury yields reverse the prior day’s surge on weak risk sentiment