Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3680-1.3990
Euro 1.6060-1.6710
Sterling 1.8510-1.8760
WTI Oil (opening level) $56.93
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.3863 ( 0.7213 )
USD/CAD rallied for the fifth consecutive day, to reach a four-week high at 1.3888. A risk-off mood supports the USD, while low Oil prices have weighed on the commodity-sensitive CAD this week.
Prices of the benchmark WTI Oil -Canada’s main export- have picked up from Wednesday’s lows but remain nearly 1% down on the week. Trump announced that Venezuela will deliver 30 to 50 million barrels to the US, which heightened concerns about an excess of supply in a context of softer global economic growth.
Recent data from the US has been mixed. Employment data released on Wednesday highlighted a stalled labour market while the services sector’s activity accelerated beyond expectations, hinting at a strong economic performance in the last quarter of 2025.
Headlines
· US private sector jobs grew by 41K in December 2025, recovering from November’s 29K loss. Education/health and leisure/hospitality led gains. Professional services, information, and manufacturing saw cuts. Pay growth remained at 4.4% for job-stayers and rose to 6.6% for job-changers.
· Japan's nominal wages increased 0.5% YoY in November 2025, down from October's 2.5% and below the expected 2.3%, affected by a 17% drop in bonuses. Real wages fell 2.8% as consumer prices rose 3.3%, squeezing incomes and complicating the BoJ’s outlook amid inflation concerns.
· The US ISM Services PMI rose to 54.4 in December 2025, up from 52.6 in November, surpassing expectations and marking the strongest growth since October 2024. All subindexes expanded, including business activity and new orders, while price pressures eased and supplier deliveries slowed.
· US job openings fell by 303,000 to 7.146 million in November 2025, below expectations and the lowest since September 2024. Declines were seen in several sectors, with construction rising. All regions experienced drops, while hires and separations remained unchanged at 5.1 million.
· Trump plans to ban large investors from buying single-family homes and urges Congress to codify it. He opposed defense contractors' excessive dividends and buybacks. Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed a tax exemption on American car loan interest.
Key Points
· Equities: US slips on banks, Europe pauses on inflation and defense rotation, while Hong Kong pulls back on profit-taking.
· Volatility: low VIX, cautious curve, payrolls risk
· Digital Assets: bitcoin and ethereum softer, IBIT and ETHA weaker, ETF outflows
· Fixed Income: Japanese government bonds rally hard on surprise wage data. US Treasuries follow JGB’s lead in Asian session.
· Currencies: JPY firms on strength in JGB’s Thursday. AUD and GBP weaker after recent standout strength.
· Commodities: Gold and silver fall as annual commodity index rebalancing starts