Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3890-1.4140
Euro 1.6140-1.6390
Sterling 1.8380-1.8630
WTI Oil (opening level) $59.19
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.4009 ( 0.7139 )
CAD kicked off the December trading month on soft footing, snapping a four-session winning streak and skidding to a halt near key moving averages against the USD.
Risk-off sentiment put some renewed bidding pressure below the USD, pushing USD/CAD back into a technical battleground near the 1.4000 price handle.
Canadian S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index for the manufacturing sector declined in November, showing continued (and accelerating) declines in both output and new orders. On the US side, November’s S&P Global PMI rose, but the underlying factors continue to worry investors as the late-year upswing in factory production helped to hide a worrying decline in new order activity.
Headlines
· The US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2 in November 2025, its lowest in four months, signaling deeper sector contraction. Key declines were seen in supplier deliveries, new orders, and employment, while workforce management focused on maintaining headcounts.
· The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI reached 52.2 in November 2025, slightly above estimates but down from October's 52.5, indicating moderating sector improvement. Output increased strongly, aided by new orders, while demand growth was modest amid uncertainty. Record inventory surges reflected softer sales.
· Silver trades softer after a near 21% surge over seven sessions, a move fuelled by tightening-inventory speculation and talk of potential short-covering squeezes. Profit-taking has emerged as risk sentiment stabilised—helped by a softer JPY after a well-received 10-year JGB auction—pressuring recent highflyers. Also worth noting: the XAUXAG ratio has again bounced near 73, a level that has twice in the past four years signalled a shift toward relative gold strength.
· Gold, which has behaved more like a follower than a leader in the latest upswing, has turned lower after failing to attract fresh demand above the November high at USD 4,245.
Key Points
· Equities: Risk-off tone kicked off December as Wall Street dipped, Europe stalled after November’s run, while Hong Kong rebounded modestly
· Volatility: VIX back in high-teens; data-heavy week; SPX options price ~±1.1% move
· Digital assets: Bitcoin stabilises near $87k after sell-off; IBIT and ETHA drop hard
· Currencies: USD bid returns as JPY rebound fades
· Commodities: Silver corrects after surge, Oil supported by rising risk premium
· Fixed Income: Strong JGB auction supports risk sentiment