Today's expected range for the Canadian Dollar against the major currencies:
US Dollar 1.3890-1.4140
Euro 1.6100-1.6350
Sterling 1.8350-1.8600
WTI Oil (opening level) $59.95
The CAD/USD is opening at 1.4014 ( 0.7136 )
Today, markets are bouncing back with considerable enthusiasm as the US government shutdown may be set to end in coming days, though it's worth noting we are only seven days removed from record highs as the market completely ignored the shutdown issue in the first place.
Headlines
· Canada's unemployment rate fell to 6.9% in October 2025 from 7.1%, against expectations. Employment increased by 66,600 jobs to 21,015,300, while unemployed persons decreased by 49,200 to 1,557,300. Core-aged men's unemployment fell to 6%, and youth unemployment dropped to 14.1%. Long-term unemployment stayed at 21.3%, similar to last year.
· The U.S. government shutdown nears its end as moderate Senate Democrats support a deal to reopen the government, The bill would provide full-year funding for some departments, fund other agencies through Jan. 30, and provide pay for furloughed government workers, but its passage in the House is not guaranteed due to opposition from Democratic leaders who had demanded an extension of expiring Obamacare subsidies.
· China has lifted its ban on exporting "dual-use items" such as gallium, germanium, antimony, and super-hard materials to the US, effective until November 27, 2026. The suspension also includes checks on graphite exports. Previously announced in December 2024, this follows the suspension on additional export controls for rare earth materials and lithium battery components.
· China's consumer prices rose 0.2% year-on-year in October 2025, rebounding from September's 0.3% drop, driven by Golden Week spending that boosted travel, food and transport demand. Core inflation reached a 20-month high at 1.2%. Monthly consumer prices also rose 0.2%, the highest in three months.
· The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell to near a record low at 50.3 in November, due to concerns over the prolonged US government shutdown. The Current Economic Conditions Index reached a record low of 52.3, and the Consumer Expectations Index dropped to 49.0. Inflation expectations were mixed: short-term increased to 4.7%, and long-term decreased to 3.6%.
· US median one-year inflation expectations dropped to 3.2% in October 2025 from 3.4%, while three- and five-year expectations remained at 3.0%. Home price growth held at 3.0% for the fifth month. Commodity expectations fell for gas (-0.7 points to 3.5%) and food (-0.1 point to 5.7%). College costs rose by 8.2% (+1.2 pp), medical care by 9.4% (+0.1 pp), and rent by 7.2% (+0.2 pp).
Key Points
· Equities: U.S. eked gains as shutdown talks inched forward, Europe slipped on AI-valuation worries, Asia opened the week softer
· Volatility: VIX steady near 19, investors hedge ahead of CPI, SPX options imply ±1.7% move
· Digital Assets: Bitcoin ~$106 k; IBIT and ETHA see inflows; alt-coins firm with risk sentiment
· Currencies: JPY weakens on jump in yields. USD mixed. AUD surges overnight.
· Commodities: Gold and silver in buoyant mood as rally resume
· Fixed Income: US treasury yields jump on hopes for end to US government shutdown. Ten-year JGB yield eyes highest close since 2008.
· Macro events: Ongoing talks to reopen US government